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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Clay Guida won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1493

Clay GuidavsAnthony PettisUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Clay Guida won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClay Guida: WrestlervsAnthony Pettis: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Clay Guida wins(86.5%)

Actual result: Clay Guida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Guida at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Clay Guida

Red Corner

Anthony Pettis

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1490

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay GuidaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Apr 22

vs Scott Holtzman · Dec 22

vs Rafa Garcia · Apr 23

vs Joaquim Silva · Dec 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Dec 24

latest

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay GuidaMetricAnthony Pettis

2.63

Strikes / min

3.05

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

61%

Strike defense

54%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.61

66%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Clay GuidaAnthony Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Clay Guida(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Clay GuidaTargetAnthony Pettis

By target zone

15% acc · 42%

Head

26% acc · 86%

100% acc · 11%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 47%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

20% acc · 42%

Distance

23% acc · 79%

83% acc · 26%

Clinch

50% acc · 7%

32% acc · 32%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Clay Guida rounds

even

Anthony Pettis rounds

Round 1Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:47

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:54

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Clay Guida edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control3:36

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 65

Sig Strikes

14 / 51

29%

Sig Str %

26.3%

63 / 112

Total Strikes

42 / 80

5 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:17

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Pettis	2 / 7	8 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Clay Guida	2 / 17	22 / 38	2 / 2	0
2	Anthony Pettis	9 / 29	14 / 34	0 / 0	1
2	Clay Guida	10 / 33	16 / 39	2 / 4	0
3	Anthony Pettis	3 / 15	20 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	Clay Guida	7 / 15	25 / 35	1 / 2	0

Clay Guida

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights27

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20