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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Tiago Trator won · Decision R3
Elo1355
Clay Collard
Elo1491

Clay CollardvsTiago TratorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tiago Trator won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Clay Collard wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Tiago Trator wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Collard at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Clay Collard
Red Corner
VS
Tiago Trator
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1355
Elo
1491
33
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Clay Collard
oldest →
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 14
W
vs Alex White · Dec 14
L
vs Gabriel Benitez · Jun 15
latest
Tiago TratorL2 streak
oldest →
W
DECvs Akbarh Arreola · Jul 14
L
KOvs Mike de la Torre · Feb 15
L
DECvs Shane Burgos · Dec 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Clay CollardMetricTiago Trator
4.22
Strikes / min
—
5.00
Strikes absorbed / min
—
50%
Strike defense
—
2.81
TDs / 15 min
—
71%
Takedown defense
—
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1501Strikes54.7 vs 34.5Takedowns3.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.67 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -0.3
Clay CollardTiago Trator

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Clay Collard(4 fights)Tiago Trator(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.4|Blue +135.4
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -111.0|Blue +111.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Clay Collard

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Tiago Trator

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights2