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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nicolas Dalby won · U-DEC R3

Elo1431

Elo1508

Claudio SilvavsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Nicolas Dalby won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudio Silva: WrestlervsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Claudio Silva wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Silva at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nicolas Dalby has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Claudio Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Claudio Silva

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1431

Elo

1508

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudio SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Nordine Taleb · May 18

SUBvs Danny Roberts · Mar 19

SUBvs Cole Williams · Aug 19

vs James Krause · Oct 20

vs Court McGee · May 21

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudio SilvaMetricNicolas Dalby

2.48

Strikes / min

3.88

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

46%

Strike defense

52%

2.85

TDs / 15 min

0.90

44%

Takedown defense

59%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudio SilvaNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudio Silva(8 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.2|Blue +77.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudio SilvaTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

31% acc · 36%

Head

41% acc · 71%

80% acc · 36%

Body

75% acc · 20%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 47%

0% acc

Clinch

76% acc · 36%

Ground

57% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudio Silva rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Claudio Silva edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control4:11

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:50

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 3Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:16

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 21

Sig Strikes

45 / 94

38.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

46 / 59

Total Strikes

61 / 114

4 / 12

TDs

1 / 1

36%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:17

Ctrl Time

4:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nicolas Dalby	0 / 1	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Claudio Silva	0 / 2	25 / 30	1 / 4	0
2	Nicolas Dalby	31 / 57	38 / 66	0 / 0	0
2	Claudio Silva	6 / 10	10 / 14	2 / 6	0
3	Nicolas Dalby	14 / 36	21 / 44	1 / 1	1
3	Claudio Silva	5 / 9	11 / 15	1 / 2	0

Claudio Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14