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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Claudio Puelles won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1506

Claudio PuellesvsJordan LeavittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Saturday, June 5, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Claudio Puelles won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudio Puelles: WrestlervsJordan Leavitt: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jordan Leavitt wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Claudio Puelles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Leavitt at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claudio Puelles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Claudio Puelles threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Jordan Leavitt has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Claudio Puelles has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Claudio Puelles

Red Corner

Jordan Leavitt

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1488

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudio PuellesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Apr 22

KOvs Dan Hooker · Nov 22

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 24

vs Joaquim Silva · Sep 25

latest

Jordan Leavitt

oldest →

KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25

vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudio PuellesMetricJordan Leavitt

1.54

Strikes / min

2.21

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

1.59

48%

Strike defense

58%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

3.15

60%

Takedown defense

30%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudio PuellesJordan Leavitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudio Puelles(8 fights)Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.9|Blue +17.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Layoff

Red +931.0|Blue -931.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudio PuellesTargetJordan Leavitt

By target zone

43% acc · 30%

Head

29% acc · 19%

86% acc · 60%

Body

63% acc · 24%

40% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 57%

By position

47% acc · 35%

Distance

63% acc · 90%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

72% acc · 65%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudio Puelles rounds

even

Jordan Leavitt rounds

Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control1:43

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:06Control

Round 2Claudio Puelles edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control3:41

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Claudio Puelles edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control4:37

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 33

Sig Strikes

21 / 34

55.3%

Sig Str %

56%

71 / 100

Total Strikes

170 / 213

4 / 4

TDs

2 / 7

100%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

10:01

Ctrl Time

2:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jordan Leavitt	12 / 16	38 / 53	2 / 6
1	Claudio Puelles	3 / 9	11 / 17	2 / 2
2	Jordan Leavitt	7 / 13	35 / 42	0 / 1
2	Claudio Puelles	4 / 7	23 / 30	0 / 0
3	Jordan Leavitt	2 / 5	97 / 118	0 / 0
3	Claudio Puelles	13 / 17	37 / 53	2 / 2

Claudio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10