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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joaquim Silva won · S-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1507

Claudio PuellesvsJoaquim SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joaquim Silva won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudio Puelles: WrestlervsJoaquim Silva: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Claudio Puelles wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Joaquim Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Puelles at -134 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Claudio Puelles

Red Corner

Joaquim Silva

Blue Corner

-134

(57%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1488

Elo

1507

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudio PuellesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 21

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Apr 22

KOvs Dan Hooker · Nov 22

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 24

latest

Joaquim Silva

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Jun 21

KOvs Jesse Ronson · Oct 22

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Jun 23

vs Clay Guida · Dec 23

vs Drakkar Klose · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudio PuellesMetricJoaquim Silva

1.54

Strikes / min

3.43

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

48%

Strike defense

53%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

0.34

60%

Takedown defense

70%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudio PuellesJoaquim Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudio Puelles(8 fights)Joaquim Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.8|Blue +18.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudio PuellesTargetJoaquim Silva

By target zone

25% acc · 67%

Head

24% acc · 48%

100% acc · 33%

Body

75% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

29% acc · 76%

Distance

37% acc · 76%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

60% acc · 12%

60% acc · 14%

Ground

33% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudio Puelles rounds

even

Joaquim Silva rounds

Round 1Claudio Puelles edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control4:22

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:55

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Joaquim Silva edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:08

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 63

Sig Strikes

25 / 66

35.3%

Sig Str %

26.3%

58 / 102

Total Strikes

95 / 136

4 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

32.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:25

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joaquim Silva	0 / 4	29 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Claudio Puelles	3 / 8	37 / 44	2 / 3	0
2	Joaquim Silva	11 / 29	13 / 31	0 / 0	1
2	Claudio Puelles	6 / 31	6 / 31	1 / 5	0
3	Joaquim Silva	14 / 33	53 / 72	0 / 0	0
3	Claudio Puelles	12 / 24	15 / 27	1 / 8	0

Claudio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Joaquim Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12