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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Claudio Puelles won · SUB R3

Elo1488

Elo1365

Claudio PuellesvsFelipe SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Claudio Puelles won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:23

Style matchupClaudio Puelles: WrestlervsFelipe Silva: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Claudio Puelles wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Claudio Puelles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Puelles at +265 American odds

+$265 profit

$365 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claudio Puelles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felipe Silva is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Claudio Puelles has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Claudio Puelles threatens submissions; Felipe Silva has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Felipe Silva has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Claudio Puelles (53.5%).
Felipe Silva has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Claudio Puelles

Red Corner

Felipe Silva

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-325

(76%)

1488

Elo

1365

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudio PuellesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Apr 22

KOvs Dan Hooker · Nov 22

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 24

vs Joaquim Silva · Sep 25

latest

Felipe Silva

oldest →

KOvs Shane Campbell · Aug 16

KOvs Mairbek Taisumov · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudio PuellesMetricFelipe Silva

1.54

Strikes / min

5.40

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

1.80

48%

Strike defense

59%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

1.00

60%

Takedown defense

71%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08Δ 4.68 — meaningful gap+3.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudio PuellesFelipe Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudio Puelles(8 fights)Felipe Silva(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.6|Blue -122.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudio PuellesTargetFelipe Silva

By target zone

27% acc · 69%

Head

48% acc · 69%

50% acc · 19%

Body

71% acc · 17%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

83% acc · 14%

By position

27% acc · 75%

Distance

40% acc · 43%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

80% acc · 25%

Ground

73% acc · 51%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudio Puelles rounds

even

Felipe Silva rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:29

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Felipe Silva edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Felipe Silva edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 49

Sig Strikes

70 / 130

35%

Sig Str %

53.3%

16 / 49

Total Strikes

103 / 171

2 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

22%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:29

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Silva	12 / 28	21 / 41	1 / 1	0
1	Claudio Puelles	6 / 10	6 / 10	2 / 3	0
2	Felipe Silva	39 / 73	55 / 89	0 / 0	0
2	Claudio Puelles	8 / 26	8 / 26	0 / 3	0
3	Felipe Silva	19 / 29	27 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Claudio Puelles	2 / 13	2 / 13	0 / 1	1

Claudio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Felipe Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights3