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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Claudio Puelles won · SUB R3

Elo1488

Elo1494

Claudio PuellesvsChris GruetzemacherUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Claudio Puelles won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:25

Style matchupClaudio Puelles: WrestlervsChris Gruetzemacher: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Claudio Puelles wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Claudio Puelles wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Puelles at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claudio Puelles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Claudio Puelles threatens submissions; Chris Gruetzemacher has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Claudio Puelles (53.5%).
Claudio Puelles has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Claudio Puelles

Red Corner

Chris Gruetzemacher

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1488

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudio PuellesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Apr 22

KOvs Dan Hooker · Nov 22

vs Fares Ziam · Feb 24

vs Joaquim Silva · Sep 25

latest

Chris Gruetzemacher

oldest →

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Feb 17

SUBvs Davi Ramos · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Lauzon · Apr 18

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 20

vs Rafa Garcia · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudio PuellesMetricChris Gruetzemacher

1.54

Strikes / min

6.18

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.96

48%

Strike defense

52%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

0.21

60%

Takedown defense

65%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08Δ 2.30 — meaningful gap+1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudio PuellesChris Gruetzemacher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudio Puelles(8 fights)Chris Gruetzemacher(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudio PuellesTargetChris Gruetzemacher

By target zone

65% acc · 72%

Head

54% acc · 39%

61% acc · 26%

Body

80% acc · 42%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

59% acc · 44%

Distance

67% acc · 58%

45% acc · 12%

Clinch

71% acc · 26%

76% acc · 44%

Ground

75% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudio Puelles rounds

even

Chris Gruetzemacher rounds

Round 1Claudio Puelles edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control4:26

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Claudio Puelles edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:14

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 3Chris Gruetzemacher edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:40

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 68

Sig Strikes

38 / 55

63%

Sig Str %

71%

72 / 103

Total Strikes

96 / 123

1 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:20

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Gruetzemacher	9 / 11	23 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Claudio Puelles	18 / 25	38 / 49	1 / 1	0
2	Chris Gruetzemacher	12 / 23	37 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Claudio Puelles	17 / 30	21 / 35	0 / 5	0
3	Chris Gruetzemacher	17 / 21	36 / 48	1 / 1	0
3	Claudio Puelles	8 / 13	13 / 19	0 / 2	1

Claudio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Chris Gruetzemacher

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7