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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Claudia Gadelha won · SUB R1

Elo1493

Elo1483

Claudia GadelhavsKarolina KowalkiewiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Claudia Gadelha won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:03

Style matchupClaudia Gadelha: WrestlervsKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Claudia Gadelha wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Claudia Gadelha wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudia Gadelha at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Claudia Gadelha

Red Corner

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1493

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudia Gadelha

oldest →

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 17

vs Carla Esparza · Jun 18

vs Nina Ansaroff · Dec 18

vs Angela Hill · May 20

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 20

latest

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudia GadelhaMetricKarolina Kowalkiewicz

3.31

Strikes / min

5.54

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

5.77

57%

Strike defense

56%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

0.36

58%

Takedown defense

74%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.26Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudia GadelhaKarolina Kowalkiewicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudia Gadelha(10 fights)Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.3|Blue -9.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudia GadelhaTargetKarolina Kowalkiewicz

By target zone

25% acc · 75%

Head

18% acc · 67%

67% acc · 25%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

23% acc · 75%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudia Gadelha rounds

even

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

Round 1Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:46

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 28

Sig Strikes

9 / 37

28%

Sig Str %

24%

8 / 28

Total Strikes

12 / 40

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	9 / 37	12 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Claudia Gadelha	8 / 28	8 / 28	1 / 2	1

Claudia Gadelha

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19