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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1427

Claudia GadelhavsJoanna JedrzejczykUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudia Gadelha: WrestlervsJoanna Jedrzejczyk: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Claudia Gadelha wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudia Gadelha at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joanna Jedrzejczyk has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Claudia Gadelha

Red Corner

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1493

Elo

1427

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudia Gadelha

oldest →

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 17

vs Carla Esparza · Jun 18

vs Nina Ansaroff · Dec 18

vs Angela Hill · May 20

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 20

latest

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudia GadelhaMetricJoanna Jedrzejczyk

3.31

Strikes / min

6.28

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

57%

Strike defense

62%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

0.27

58%

Takedown defense

80%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.26Δ 4.29 — meaningful gap+3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudia GadelhaJoanna Jedrzejczyk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudia Gadelha(10 fights)Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +65.3|Blue -65.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +10.0|Blue -10.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudia GadelhaTargetJoanna Jedrzejczyk

By target zone

31% acc · 67%

Head

20% acc · 53%

82% acc · 33%

Body

82% acc · 47%

Leg

0% acc

By position

24% acc · 41%

Distance

21% acc · 53%

61% acc · 41%

Clinch

68% acc · 39%

71% acc · 19%

Ground

43% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudia Gadelha rounds

even

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

Round 1Joanna Jedrzejczyk edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:54

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control2:30

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:24

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 70

Sig Strikes

38 / 125

38.7%

Sig Str %

29.7%

59 / 104

Total Strikes

47 / 134

7 / 16

TDs

0 / 0

43.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:48

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	13 / 40	17 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Claudia Gadelha	10 / 23	26 / 40	1 / 5	1
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	16 / 47	19 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Claudia Gadelha	7 / 25	13 / 31	3 / 5	0
3	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	9 / 38	11 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Claudia Gadelha	10 / 22	20 / 33	3 / 6	0

Claudia Gadelha

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15