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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Claudia Gadelha won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1372

Claudia GadelhavsJessica AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · Saturday, August 1, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Claudia Gadelha won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudia Gadelha: WrestlervsJessica Aguilar: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Claudia Gadelha wins(77.4%)

Actual result: Claudia Gadelha wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudia Gadelha at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Claudia Gadelha

Red Corner

Jessica Aguilar

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1493

Elo

1372

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudia Gadelha

oldest →

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 17

vs Carla Esparza · Jun 18

vs Nina Ansaroff · Dec 18

vs Angela Hill · May 20

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 20

latest

Jessica AguilarL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cortney Casey · May 17

vs Jodie Esquibel · Jul 18

SUBvs Weili Zhang · Nov 18

vs Marina Rodriguez · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudia GadelhaMetricJessica Aguilar

3.31

Strikes / min

4.93

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

7.19

57%

Strike defense

53%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

0.94

58%

Takedown defense

50%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.26Δ 1.00 — meaningful gap-2.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudia GadelhaJessica Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudia Gadelha(10 fights)Jessica Aguilar(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.1|Blue -121.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.7|Blue +47.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudia GadelhaTargetJessica Aguilar

By target zone

41% acc · 86%

Head

23% acc · 50%

84% acc · 14%

Body

85% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 34%

By position

101

43% acc · 91%

Distance

35% acc · 90%

64% acc · 8%

Clinch

78% acc · 10%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudia Gadelha rounds

even

Jessica Aguilar rounds

Round 1Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control0:48

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns2

Control1:12

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control0:36

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

111 / 248

Sig Strikes

70 / 189

44.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

121 / 263

Total Strikes

88 / 210

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jessica Aguilar	19 / 60	26 / 69	0 / 0
1	Claudia Gadelha	37 / 95	40 / 99	1 / 1
2	Jessica Aguilar	23 / 65	34 / 77	0 / 1
2	Claudia Gadelha	37 / 77	38 / 78	2 / 2
3	Jessica Aguilar	28 / 64	28 / 64	0 / 2
3	Claudia Gadelha	37 / 76	43 / 86	1 / 1

Claudia Gadelha

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Jessica Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5