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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Claudia Gadelha won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1495

Claudia GadelhavsCortney CaseyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Saturday, November 19, 2016Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Claudia Gadelha won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudia Gadelha: WrestlervsCortney Casey: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Claudia Gadelha wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Claudia Gadelha wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudia Gadelha at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claudia Gadelha has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cortney Casey has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Claudia Gadelha

Red Corner

Cortney Casey

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

160.02 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudia Gadelha

oldest →

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 17

vs Carla Esparza · Jun 18

vs Nina Ansaroff · Dec 18

vs Angela Hill · May 20

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 20

latest

Cortney Casey

oldest →

SUBvs Mara Romero Borella · May 20

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Jun 20

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 21

vs Liana Jojua · Nov 21

vs Antonina Shevchenko · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudia GadelhaMetricCortney Casey

3.31

Strikes / min

4.29

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.00

57%

Strike defense

55%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

0.39

58%

Takedown defense

39%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.26Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudia GadelhaCortney Casey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudia Gadelha(10 fights)Cortney Casey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red +43.0|Blue -43.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudia GadelhaTargetCortney Casey

By target zone

40% acc · 88%

Head

20% acc · 45%

67% acc · 6%

Body

67% acc · 27%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

60% acc · 27%

By position

39% acc · 74%

Distance

26% acc · 64%

55% acc · 18%

Clinch

57% acc · 36%

60% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudia Gadelha rounds

even

Cortney Casey rounds

Round 1Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:23

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:59

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns3

Control2:03

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 80

Sig Strikes

22 / 68

39%

Sig Str %

33.3%

43 / 92

Total Strikes

46 / 95

6 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:25

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cortney Casey	9 / 22	17 / 32	0 / 1	0
1	Claudia Gadelha	5 / 18	10 / 25	1 / 1	0
2	Cortney Casey	8 / 19	16 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Claudia Gadelha	9 / 25	11 / 27	2 / 2	0
3	Cortney Casey	5 / 27	13 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Claudia Gadelha	20 / 37	22 / 40	3 / 3	1

Claudia Gadelha

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Cortney Casey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15