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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Claudia Gadelha won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1497

Claudia GadelhavsCarla EsparzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Claudia Gadelha won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudia Gadelha: WrestlervsCarla Esparza: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Claudia Gadelha wins(67.0%)

Actual result: Claudia Gadelha wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudia Gadelha at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Claudia Gadelha

Red Corner

Carla Esparza

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1493

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'1"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudia Gadelha

oldest →

SUBvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Jun 17

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 17

vs Nina Ansaroff · Dec 18

vs Angela Hill · May 20

vs Yan Xiaonan · Nov 20

latest

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudia GadelhaMetricCarla Esparza

3.31

Strikes / min

2.19

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

57%

Strike defense

54%

3.03

TDs / 15 min

3.28

58%

Takedown defense

47%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.26evenly matched on net striking-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudia GadelhaCarla Esparza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudia Gadelha(10 fights)Carla Esparza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.2|Blue +4.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +99.0|Blue -99.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudia GadelhaTargetCarla Esparza

By target zone

39% acc · 88%

Head

37% acc · 77%

60% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

64% acc · 16%

By position

39% acc · 85%

Distance

35% acc · 65%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

58% acc · 16%

60% acc · 12%

Ground

67% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudia Gadelha rounds

even

Carla Esparza rounds

Round 1Claudia Gadelha edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:59

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 2Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control2:44

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:17

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 64

Sig Strikes

43 / 103

38%

Sig Str %

42.3%

78 / 124

Total Strikes

205 / 288

4 / 5

TDs

2 / 4

88.7%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:00

Ctrl Time

3:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carla Esparza	13 / 36	44 / 74	0 / 2	0
1	Claudia Gadelha	13 / 28	26 / 45	1 / 1	1
2	Carla Esparza	14 / 27	83 / 104	1 / 1	0
2	Claudia Gadelha	4 / 15	28 / 42	2 / 3	0
3	Carla Esparza	16 / 40	78 / 110	1 / 1	0
3	Claudia Gadelha	9 / 21	24 / 37	1 / 1	0

Claudia Gadelha

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15