Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ebersole won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Claude PatrickvsBrian EbersoleUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Brian Ebersole won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Brian Ebersole wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Brian Ebersole wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ebersole at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claude Patrick enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Claude Patrick has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Claude Patrick has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ebersole (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Claude Patrick

Red Corner

Brian Ebersole

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claude PatrickW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 10

vs James Wilks · Oct 10

vs Daniel Roberts · Apr 11

latest

Brian Ebersole

oldest →

vs TJ Waldburger · Jun 12

vs James Head · Jul 12

vs Rick Story · Nov 13

vs John Howard · Sep 14

KOvs Omari Akhmedov · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claude PatrickMetricBrian Ebersole

1.80

Strikes / min

2.32

0.89

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

69%

Strike defense

56%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

1.70

84%

Takedown defense

61%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claude PatrickBrian Ebersole

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claude Patrick(4 fights)Brian Ebersole(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claude PatrickTargetBrian Ebersole

By target zone

48% acc · 46%

Head

58% acc · 61%

88% acc · 50%

Body

33% acc · 9%

25% acc · 4%

Leg

78% acc · 30%

By position

20% acc · 11%

Distance

43% acc · 39%

78% acc · 89%

Clinch

71% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claude Patrick rounds

even

Brian Ebersole rounds

Round 1Brian Ebersole edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:19

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 2Claude Patrick edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:44

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:22Control

Round 3Brian Ebersole edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:22

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 47

Sig Strikes

23 / 39

59.7%

Sig Str %

63%

65 / 84

Total Strikes

53 / 74

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 12

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

9:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Ebersole	7 / 12	21 / 27	1 / 3	0
1	Claude Patrick	10 / 13	17 / 20	0 / 0	1
2	Brian Ebersole	7 / 17	13 / 23	0 / 4	0
2	Claude Patrick	14 / 26	29 / 41	0 / 3	0
3	Brian Ebersole	9 / 10	19 / 24	1 / 5	0
3	Claude Patrick	4 / 8	19 / 23	0 / 0	2

Claude Patrick

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4

Brian Ebersole

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8