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Flyweight

3 Rounds

CJ Vergara won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1485

CJ VergaravsVinicius SalvadorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

CJ Vergara won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCJ Vergara: Pressure fightervsVinicius Salvador: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: CJ Vergara wins(61.3%)

Actual result: CJ Vergara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

CJ Vergara at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

CJ Vergara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vinicius Salvador has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Vinicius Salvador (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

CJ Vergara

Red Corner

Vinicius Salvador

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1486

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

CJ VergaraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 22

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Mar 24

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Mar 25

latest

Vinicius SalvadorL2 streak

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Mar 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

CJ VergaraMetricVinicius Salvador

5.02

Strikes / min

5.48

4.69

Strikes absorbed / min

6.50

53%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.36

60%

Takedown defense

86%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

CJ VergaraVinicius Salvador

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

CJ Vergara(8 fights)Vinicius Salvador(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

CJ VergaraTargetVinicius Salvador

By target zone

42% acc · 39%

Head

35% acc · 61%

79% acc · 41%

Body

76% acc · 22%

95% acc · 19%

Leg

94% acc · 17%

By position

104

59% acc · 95%

Distance

45% acc · 99%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

CJ Vergara rounds

even

Vinicius Salvador rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2CJ Vergara edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3CJ Vergara edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

109 / 181

Sig Strikes

88 / 195

60%

Sig Str %

45.7%

109 / 181

Total Strikes

89 / 196

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vinicius Salvador	20 / 40	20 / 40	0 / 0
1	CJ Vergara	20 / 33	20 / 33	0 / 0
2	Vinicius Salvador	30 / 64	31 / 65	0 / 2
2	CJ Vergara	45 / 71	45 / 71	0 / 0
3	Vinicius Salvador	38 / 91	38 / 91	0 / 0
3	CJ Vergara	44 / 77	44 / 77	0 / 0

CJ Vergara

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Vinicius Salvador

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3