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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ode Osbourne won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1479

CJ VergaravsOde OsbourneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ode Osbourne won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCJ Vergara: Pressure fightervsOde Osbourne: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: CJ Vergara wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Ode Osbourne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

CJ Vergara at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

CJ Vergara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Ode Osbourne (53.5%).
Ode Osbourne has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

CJ Vergara

Red Corner

Ode Osbourne

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1486

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

CJ VergaraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23

vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Mar 24

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Mar 25

latest

Ode OsbourneL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Mar 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Sep 24

KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25

vs Steve Erceg · Aug 25

vs Alibi Idiris · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

CJ VergaraMetricOde Osbourne

5.02

Strikes / min

2.94

4.69

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

53%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.94

60%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

CJ VergaraOde Osbourne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

CJ Vergara(8 fights)Ode Osbourne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.1|Blue -7.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

CJ VergaraTargetOde Osbourne

By target zone

35% acc · 38%

Head

36% acc · 77%

86% acc · 55%

Body

65% acc · 19%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

53% acc · 73%

Distance

40% acc · 97%

73% acc · 17%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

64% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

CJ Vergara rounds

even

Ode Osbourne rounds

Round 1Ode Osbourne edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:01

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3CJ Vergara edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control2:40

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 165

Sig Strikes

79 / 194

55.7%

Sig Str %

40%

122 / 197

Total Strikes

89 / 208

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ode Osbourne	34 / 75	34 / 75	0 / 1
1	CJ Vergara	24 / 52	24 / 52	0 / 0
2	Ode Osbourne	26 / 71	31 / 78	1 / 3
2	CJ Vergara	28 / 48	28 / 48	0 / 0
3	Ode Osbourne	19 / 48	24 / 55	0 / 3
3	CJ Vergara	41 / 65	70 / 97	0 / 0

CJ Vergara

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11