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Flyweight

3 Rounds

CJ Vergara won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1486

Elo1483

CJ VergaravsDaniel LacerdaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, March 25, 2023San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

CJ Vergara won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:04

Style matchupCJ Vergara: Pressure fightervsDaniel Lacerda: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: CJ Vergara wins(51.4%)

Actual result: CJ Vergara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

CJ Vergara at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

CJ Vergara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Lacerda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
CJ Vergara has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
CJ Vergara has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Lacerda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

CJ Vergara

Red Corner

Daniel Lacerda

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

—

1486

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

CJ VergaraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 22

vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Mar 24

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Mar 25

latest

Daniel LacerdaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeff Molina · Oct 21

SUBvs Francisco Figueiredo · Apr 22

KOvs Victor Altamirano · Aug 22

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

CJ VergaraMetricDaniel Lacerda

5.02

Strikes / min

3.95

4.69

Strikes absorbed / min

8.28

53%

Strike defense

34%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.32

60%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33Δ 4.66 — meaningful gap-4.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

CJ VergaraDaniel Lacerda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

CJ Vergara(8 fights)Daniel Lacerda(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.8|Blue -3.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

CJ VergaraTargetDaniel Lacerda

By target zone

55% acc · 69%

Head

34% acc · 67%

55% acc · 19%

Body

65% acc · 23%

83% acc · 12%

Leg

83% acc · 10%

By position

52% acc · 41%

Distance

40% acc · 88%

0% acc

Clinch

57% acc · 8%

64% acc · 59%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

CJ Vergara rounds

even

Daniel Lacerda rounds

Round 1Daniel Lacerda edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2CJ Vergara edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns0

Control2:51

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 144

Sig Strikes

48 / 117

55.5%

Sig Str %

35%

98 / 164

Total Strikes

51 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Lacerda	44 / 103	46 / 105	1 / 1	1
1	CJ Vergara	20 / 38	24 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Daniel Lacerda	4 / 14	5 / 15	0 / 1	1
2	CJ Vergara	63 / 106	74 / 122	0 / 0	1

CJ Vergara

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Daniel Lacerda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5