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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Asu Almabayev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1557

CJ VergaravsAsu AlmabayevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Asu Almabayev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCJ Vergara: Pressure fightervsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(79.4%)

Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Asu Almabayev threatens submissions; CJ Vergara has lost 40% of fights by sub.
CJ Vergara has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

CJ Vergara

Red Corner

Asu Almabayev

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1486

Elo

1557

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

CJ VergaraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 22

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23

vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Mar 25

latest

Asu AlmabayevW3 streak

oldest →

vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25

vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25

SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25

SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

CJ VergaraMetricAsu Almabayev

5.02

Strikes / min

2.31

4.69

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

53%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

4.46

60%

Takedown defense

44%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

CJ VergaraAsu Almabayev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

CJ Vergara(8 fights)Asu Almabayev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -70.1|Blue +70.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

CJ VergaraTargetAsu Almabayev

By target zone

41% acc · 45%

Head

42% acc · 50%

82% acc · 48%

Body

82% acc · 20%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

48% acc · 76%

Distance

45% acc · 52%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

80% acc · 18%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

81% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

CJ Vergara rounds

even

Asu Almabayev rounds

Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:14

16Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:35Control

Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 53

Sig Strikes

44 / 77

55.7%

Sig Str %

57.3%

66 / 92

Total Strikes

85 / 132

0 / 0

TDs

9 / 14

—

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

9:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Asu Almabayev	16 / 25	23 / 34	4 / 6
1	CJ Vergara	7 / 14	13 / 20	0 / 0
2	Asu Almabayev	12 / 21	36 / 55	2 / 2
2	CJ Vergara	8 / 12	25 / 30	0 / 0
3	Asu Almabayev	16 / 31	26 / 43	3 / 6
3	CJ Vergara	14 / 27	28 / 42	0 / 0

CJ Vergara

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8