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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Ciryl Gane won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1531

Elo1453

Ciryl GanevsTai TuivasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, September 3, 2022Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Ciryl Gane won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:23

Style matchupCiryl Gane: Elusive strikervsTai Tuivasa: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Ciryl Gane wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Ciryl Gane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ciryl Gane at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Ciryl Gane has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Ciryl Gane has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ciryl Gane

Red Corner

Tai Tuivasa

Blue Corner

-475

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1531

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'2"

205.74 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ciryl Gane

oldest →

SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ciryl GaneMetricTai Tuivasa

5.29

Strikes / min

3.37

2.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

60%

Strike defense

42%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.00

47%

Takedown defense

58%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.96Δ 4.20 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ciryl GaneTai Tuivasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ciryl Gane(10 fights)Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.7|Blue -78.7

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ciryl GaneTargetTai Tuivasa

By target zone

58% acc · 58%

Head

28% acc · 59%

75% acc · 27%

Body

44% acc · 14%

89% acc · 15%

Leg

42% acc · 28%

By position

108

65% acc · 98%

Distance

31% acc · 90%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ciryl Gane rounds

even

Tai Tuivasa rounds

Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 168

Sig Strikes

29 / 89

62.3%

Sig Str %

31.3%

110 / 168

Total Strikes

29 / 89

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tai Tuivasa	6 / 26	6 / 26	0 / 0
1	Ciryl Gane	16 / 31	16 / 31	0 / 0
2	Tai Tuivasa	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 0
2	Ciryl Gane	41 / 65	41 / 65	0 / 1
3	Tai Tuivasa	8 / 23	8 / 23	0 / 0
3	Ciryl Gane	53 / 72	53 / 72	0 / 0

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17