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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ciryl Gane won · Submission R1
Elo1531
Ciryl Gane
Elo1492
Raphael Pessoa Nunes

Ciryl GanevsRaphael Pessoa NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2019Montevideo, Uruguay

Official fight result

Ciryl Gane won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:12

Model Prediction: Ciryl Gane wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Ciryl Gane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ciryl Gane at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ciryl Gane
Red Corner
VS
Raphael Pessoa Nunes
Blue Corner
-470
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
1531
Elo
1492
36
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
205.74 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ciryl Gane
oldest →
L
SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23
W
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23
W
vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24
L
vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26
latest
Raphael Pessoa Nunes
oldest →
W
DECvs Jeff Hughes · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ciryl GaneMetricRaphael Pessoa Nunes
5.29
Strikes / min
—
2.33
Strikes absorbed / min
—
60%
Strike defense
—
0.68
TDs / 15 min
—
47%
Takedown defense
—
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes5.1 vs 2.4Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Ciryl GaneRaphael Pessoa Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Ciryl Gane(10 fights)Raphael Pessoa Nunes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +39.5|Blue -39.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights13

Raphael Pessoa Nunes

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights1