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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Christos Giagos won · U-DEC

Elo1495

Elo1393

Christos GiagosvsCarlton MinusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Saturday, December 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christos Giagos won

U-DEC

Style matchupChristos Giagos: WrestlervsCarlton Minus: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Christos Giagos wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Christos Giagos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christos Giagos at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Carlton Minus has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Christos Giagos

Red Corner

Carlton Minus

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1495

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christos GiagosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Sep 21

SUBvs Thiago Moises · Jun 22

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Apr 23

SUBvs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 23

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 24

latest

Carlton Minus

oldest →

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christos GiagosMetricCarlton Minus

3.03

Strikes / min

3.50

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

4.97

50%

Strike defense

50%

2.84

TDs / 15 min

0.00

52%

Takedown defense

58%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.18Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christos GiagosCarlton Minus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christos Giagos(10 fights)Carlton Minus(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +101.7|Blue -101.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +371.0|Blue -371.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christos GiagosTargetCarlton Minus

By target zone

40% acc · 74%

Head

28% acc · 64%

60% acc · 10%

Body

44% acc · 14%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

86% acc · 21%

By position

34% acc · 55%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

81% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christos Giagos rounds

even

Carlton Minus rounds

Round 1Christos Giagos edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control3:40

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Christos Giagos edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:34

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:43

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 67

Sig Strikes

28 / 80

48%

Sig Str %

33.3%

76 / 124

Total Strikes

29 / 81

5 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

53.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlton Minus	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0
1	Christos Giagos	13 / 19	26 / 37	3 / 3
2	Carlton Minus	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 0
2	Christos Giagos	6 / 15	34 / 47	1 / 2
3	Carlton Minus	19 / 55	20 / 56	0 / 0
3	Christos Giagos	12 / 33	16 / 40	1 / 10

Christos Giagos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14

Carlton Minus

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2