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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Montana De La Rosa won · SUB R1

Elo1491

Elo1499

Christina MarksvsMontana De La RosaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · Friday, December 1, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Montana De La Rosa won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:00

Style matchupChristina Marks: WrestlervsMontana De La Rosa: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Christina Marks wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Montana De La Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christina Marks at +300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christina Marks has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Montana De La Rosa has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Christina Marks

Red Corner

Montana De La Rosa

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1491

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christina MarksNo prior UFC fights on record.

Montana De La Rosa

oldest →

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Jun 21

vs Maycee Barber · Apr 22

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 23

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 23

vs Andrea Lee · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christina MarksMetricMontana De La Rosa

5.00

Strikes / min

2.90

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

64%

Strike defense

45%

7.50

TDs / 15 min

1.85

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.00Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap-0.49

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christina Marks(1 fights)Montana De La Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.1|Blue +8.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christina MarksTargetMontana De La Rosa

By target zone

46% acc · 60%

Head

23% acc · 50%

100% acc · 20%

Body

67% acc · 33%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

58% acc · 70%

Distance

30% acc · 50%

75% acc · 30%

Clinch

43% acc · 50%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christina Marks rounds

even

Montana De La Rosa rounds

Round 1Christina Marks edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:41

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 17

Sig Strikes

6 / 17

58%

Sig Str %

35%

17 / 24

Total Strikes

8 / 19

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Montana De La Rosa	6 / 17	8 / 19	0 / 0	1
1	Christina Marks	10 / 17	17 / 24	1 / 1	0

Christina Marks

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1

Montana De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11