Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melquizael Costa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1564

Christian RodriguezvsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Melquizael Costa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChristian Rodriguez: Submission grapplervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melquizael Costa at +168 American odds

+$168 profit

$268 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Christian Rodriguez

Red Corner

Melquizael Costa

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1521

Elo

1564

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Melquizael Costa

oldest →

SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25

vs Julian Erosa · May 25

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26

DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian RodriguezMetricMelquizael Costa

3.85

Strikes / min

4.38

2.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

56%

Strike defense

54%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

2.00

67%

Takedown defense

58%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian RodriguezMelquizael Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.3|Blue +42.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian RodriguezTargetMelquizael Costa

By target zone

52% acc · 56%

Head

54% acc · 60%

96% acc · 36%

Body

76% acc · 29%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

88% acc · 11%

By position

55% acc · 45%

Distance

40% acc · 29%

84% acc · 41%

Clinch

74% acc · 26%

64% acc · 14%

Ground

83% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Rodriguez rounds

even

Melquizael Costa rounds

Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:07

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 2Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:42

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns4

Control2:59

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 98

Sig Strikes

65 / 105

69%

Sig Str %

61.3%

77 / 113

Total Strikes

159 / 208

6 / 15

TDs

1 / 2

37%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

6:48

Ctrl Time

4:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melquizael Costa	22 / 32	63 / 73	0 / 1	0
1	Christian Rodriguez	11 / 14	12 / 15	1 / 5	1
2	Melquizael Costa	26 / 40	71 / 93	1 / 1	1
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 / 27	24 / 33	1 / 4	0
3	Melquizael Costa	17 / 33	25 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Christian Rodriguez	34 / 57	41 / 65	4 / 6	0

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9