Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Christian Rodriguez won · SUB R1

Elo1521

Elo1495

Christian RodriguezvsJoshua WeemsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Rodriguez won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:07

Style matchupChristian Rodriguez: Submission grapplervsJoshua Weems: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Joshua Weems wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Christian Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Weems at +340 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joshua Weems has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Rodriguez

Red Corner

Joshua Weems

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1521

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Joshua WeemsNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian RodriguezMetricJoshua Weems

3.85

Strikes / min

5.25

2.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

56%

Strike defense

61%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

4.77

67%

Takedown defense

100%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian RodriguezJoshua Weems

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)Joshua Weems(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.5|Blue -26.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian RodriguezTargetJoshua Weems

By target zone

38% acc · 89%

Head

60% acc · 50%

Body

86% acc · 33%

50% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 17%

By position

38% acc · 89%

Distance

63% acc · 67%

0% acc

Clinch

86% acc · 33%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Rodriguez rounds

even

Joshua Weems rounds

Round 1Joshua Weems edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:56

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 23

Sig Strikes

18 / 26

39%

Sig Str %

69%

15 / 30

Total Strikes

22 / 32

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joshua Weems	18 / 26	22 / 32	2 / 3	0
1	Christian Rodriguez	9 / 23	15 / 30	0 / 2	1

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Joshua Weems

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1