Featherweight

3 Rounds

Christian Rodriguez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1490

Christian RodriguezvsIsaac DulgarianUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Saturday, March 16, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Rodriguez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChristian Rodriguez: Submission grapplervsIsaac Dulgarian: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Isaac Dulgarian wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Christian Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Isaac Dulgarian at -205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Rodriguez has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Christian Rodriguez has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Rodriguez

Red Corner

Isaac Dulgarian

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1521

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Isaac Dulgarian

oldest →

KOvs Francis Marshall · Aug 23

SUBvs Brendon Marotte · Sep 24

SUBvs Yadier del Valle · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian RodriguezMetricIsaac Dulgarian

3.85

Strikes / min

2.99

2.85

Strikes absorbed / min

1.65

56%

Strike defense

40%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

4.57

67%

Takedown defense

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian RodriguezIsaac Dulgarian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)Isaac Dulgarian(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.9|Blue -30.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian RodriguezTargetIsaac Dulgarian

By target zone

61% acc · 90%

Head

44% acc · 77%

100% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

53% acc · 44%

Distance

41% acc · 64%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

65% acc · 35%

Ground

78% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Rodriguez rounds

even

Isaac Dulgarian rounds

Round 1Isaac Dulgarian edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:48Control

Round 2Isaac Dulgarian edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:05

8Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 3Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control3:14

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 76

Sig Strikes

22 / 44

57.7%

Sig Str %

58.3%

97 / 135

Total Strikes

56 / 89

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 16

—

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:19

Ctrl Time

9:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Isaac Dulgarian	9 / 11	36 / 49	3 / 3	2
1	Christian Rodriguez	1 / 3	5 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Isaac Dulgarian	8 / 11	15 / 18	4 / 6	0
2	Christian Rodriguez	12 / 15	18 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Isaac Dulgarian	5 / 22	5 / 22	0 / 7	0
3	Christian Rodriguez	35 / 58	74 / 106	0 / 0	0

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Isaac Dulgarian

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4