← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Christian Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1489

Christian RodriguezvsCameron SaaimanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Saturday, October 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChristian Rodriguez: Submission grapplervsCameron Saaiman: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Cameron Saaiman wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Christian Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Rodriguez has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cameron Saaiman (53.5%).
Christian Rodriguez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Rodriguez

Red Corner

Cameron Saaiman

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1521

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Cameron SaaimanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steven Koslow · Dec 22

vs Mana Martinez · Mar 23

KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Jul 23

KOvs Payton Talbott · Mar 24

KOvs Malcolm Wellmaker · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian RodriguezMetricCameron Saaiman

3.85

Strikes / min

5.30

2.85

Strikes absorbed / min

4.14

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

0.89

67%

Takedown defense

47%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian RodriguezCameron Saaiman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)Cameron Saaiman(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.6|Blue -32.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian RodriguezTargetCameron Saaiman

By target zone

45% acc · 77%

Head

31% acc · 52%

95% acc · 22%

Body

67% acc · 19%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

64% acc · 29%

By position

48% acc · 76%

Distance

41% acc · 89%

62% acc · 16%

Clinch

53% acc · 11%

78% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Rodriguez rounds

even

Cameron Saaiman rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:36

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:25

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 3Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns1

Control0:11

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 161

Sig Strikes

73 / 175

54.7%

Sig Str %

41.3%

92 / 173

Total Strikes

87 / 192

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 5

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:12

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cameron Saaiman	27 / 69	32 / 74	0 / 2	0
1	Christian Rodriguez	22 / 50	22 / 50	1 / 4	1
2	Cameron Saaiman	8 / 19	16 / 29	0 / 2	1
2	Christian Rodriguez	19 / 27	28 / 39	1 / 1	1
3	Cameron Saaiman	38 / 87	39 / 89	0 / 1	0
3	Christian Rodriguez	42 / 84	42 / 84	1 / 1	0

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Cameron Saaiman

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6