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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Christian Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1521

Elo1482

Christian RodriguezvsAustin BashiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChristian Rodriguez: Submission grapplervsAustin Bashi: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Christian Rodriguez wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Christian Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Rodriguez at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Christian Rodriguez

Red Corner

Austin Bashi

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1521

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Isaac Dulgarian · Mar 24

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Austin Bashi

oldest →

SUBvs John Yannis · Aug 25

DECvs Jose Delgado · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian RodriguezMetricAustin Bashi

3.85

Strikes / min

1.75

2.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

56%

Strike defense

48%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

7.81

67%

Takedown defense

62%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian RodriguezAustin Bashi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)Austin Bashi(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.5|Blue -39.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian RodriguezTargetAustin Bashi

By target zone

47% acc · 73%

Head

35% acc · 52%

86% acc · 27%

Body

82% acc · 39%

Leg

40% acc · 9%

By position

48% acc · 73%

Distance

40% acc · 74%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

83% acc · 22%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Rodriguez rounds

even

Austin Bashi rounds

Round 1Austin Bashi edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:14

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:24

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 3Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:42

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 82

Sig Strikes

23 / 50

55%

Sig Str %

46.3%

55 / 93

Total Strikes

32 / 60

2 / 4

TDs

3 / 18

50%

TD %

14.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:20

Ctrl Time

5:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Bashi	8 / 13	11 / 16	1 / 6	0
1	Christian Rodriguez	7 / 18	9 / 20	1 / 2	2
2	Austin Bashi	5 / 15	11 / 22	2 / 7	0
2	Christian Rodriguez	14 / 18	19 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Austin Bashi	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 5	0
3	Christian Rodriguez	23 / 46	27 / 50	1 / 2	0

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Austin Bashi

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3