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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1351

Elo1356

Christian MorecraftvsMatt MitrioneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · Sunday, June 26, 2011Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:28

Style matchupChristian Morecraft: WrestlervsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(79.0%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Christian Morecraft has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Christian Morecraft threatens submissions; Matt Mitrione has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Matt Mitrione has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Christian Morecraft

Red Corner

Matt Mitrione

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1351

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'6"

Height

6'3"

205.74 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Morecraft

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Aug 10

SUBvs Sean McCorkle · Mar 11

KOvs Pat Barry · Jan 12

latest

Matt MitrioneL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian MorecraftMetricMatt Mitrione

2.82

Strikes / min

3.55

2.46

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

46%

Strike defense

64%

3.26

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

55%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian MorecraftMatt Mitrione

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Morecraft(4 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.8|Blue +4.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian MorecraftTargetMatt Mitrione

By target zone

15% acc · 71%

Head

39% acc · 68%

25% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 3%

80% acc · 24%

Leg

79% acc · 30%

By position

18% acc · 94%

Distance

45% acc · 89%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Morecraft rounds

even

Matt Mitrione rounds

Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Matt Mitrione edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:39

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 90

Sig Strikes

37 / 80

19%

Sig Str %

44.5%

22 / 96

Total Strikes

45 / 88

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:49

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Mitrione	27 / 55	30 / 58	0 / 0
1	Christian Morecraft	12 / 65	12 / 65	0 / 0
2	Matt Mitrione	10 / 25	15 / 30	0 / 0
2	Christian Morecraft	5 / 25	10 / 31	2 / 3

Christian Morecraft

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights4

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights13