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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Christian Leroy Duncan won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1577
Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration
Elo1485
Marco Tulio

Christian Leroy DuncanvsMarco TulioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Saturday, November 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:20

Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsMarco Tulio: Elusive striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Marco Tulio wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Tulio at -166 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Christian Leroy Duncan is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Marco Tulio has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Christian Leroy Duncan has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).
  • Christian Leroy Duncan has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Leroy Duncan
Red Corner
VS
Marco Tulio
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-166
(62%)
1577
Elo
1485
31
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Leroy DuncanW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · Jul 24
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25
W
KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25
W
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26
W
DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26
latest
Marco Tulio
oldest →
W
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 25
W
KOvs Tresean Gore · Apr 25
L
DECvs Roman Kopylov · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian Leroy DuncanMetricMarco Tulio
4.43
Strikes / min
6.02
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
52%
Strike defense
56%
0.33
TDs / 15 min
1.05
63%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.84Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+3.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1552 vs 1534Strikes4.4 vs 6.7Takedowns0.3 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.30Form0.7 vs 1.0
Christian Leroy DuncanMarco Tulio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701500153015601590← oldermost recent →
Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)Marco Tulio(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +92.6|Blue -92.6
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -119.0|Blue +119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian Leroy DuncanTargetMarco Tulio

By target zone

11
41% acc · 48%
Head
13
36% acc · 48%
3
43% acc · 13%
Body
3
43% acc · 11%
9
75% acc · 39%
Leg
11
79% acc · 41%

By position

20
47% acc · 87%
Distance
22
45% acc · 81%
1
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
5
63% acc · 19%
2
100% acc · 9%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Christian Leroy Duncan rounds
0
even
1
Marco Tulio rounds
Round 1Marco Tulio edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control1:01
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:31Control
Round 2Christian Leroy Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:09
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
23 / 46
Sig Strikes
27 / 57
48.5%
Sig Str %
47%
40 / 66
Total Strikes
42 / 75
1 / 1
TDs
2 / 5
100%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:10
Ctrl Time
2:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marco Tulio8 / 1715 / 252 / 40
1Christian Leroy Duncan8 / 1813 / 261 / 10
2Marco Tulio19 / 4027 / 500 / 10
2Christian Leroy Duncan15 / 2827 / 400 / 00

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights10

Marco Tulio

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4