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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues won · U-DEC R3

Elo1577

Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Christian Leroy DuncanvsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Saturday, July 27, 2024Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Gregory Rodrigues won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(69.1%)

Actual result: Gregory Rodrigues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Christian Leroy Duncan is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Gregory Rodrigues has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).
Christian Leroy Duncan has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Leroy Duncan

Red Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1577

Elo

1548

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Leroy DuncanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25

KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25

KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26

DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26

latest

Gregory RodriguesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brad Tavares · Feb 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian Leroy DuncanMetricGregory Rodrigues

4.43

Strikes / min

5.53

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

52%

Strike defense

50%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

1.90

63%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.84Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian Leroy DuncanGregory Rodrigues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian Leroy DuncanTargetGregory Rodrigues

By target zone

46% acc · 45%

Head

54% acc · 82%

70% acc · 24%

Body

80% acc · 18%

90% acc · 31%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 79%

Distance

51% acc · 62%

75% acc · 21%

Clinch

67% acc · 27%

Ground

83% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Leroy Duncan rounds

even

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

Round 1Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 2Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:25

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 3Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:20

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 48

Sig Strikes

45 / 79

60.3%

Sig Str %

54.3%

53 / 77

Total Strikes

78 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 12

—

TD %

54.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

8:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gregory Rodrigues	12 / 21	21 / 34	1 / 1
1	Christian Leroy Duncan	9 / 19	9 / 20	0 / 0
2	Gregory Rodrigues	26 / 43	40 / 58	1 / 7
2	Christian Leroy Duncan	13 / 17	24 / 29	0 / 0
3	Gregory Rodrigues	7 / 15	17 / 28	2 / 4
3	Christian Leroy Duncan	7 / 12	20 / 28	0 / 0

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights10

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13