← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Christian Leroy Duncan won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1577

Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Elo1494

Christian Leroy DuncanvsDusko TodorovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:52

Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsDusko Todorovic: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Leroy Duncan at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Christian Leroy Duncan is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Dusko Todorovic has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Christian Leroy Duncan has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).
Christian Leroy Duncan has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Leroy Duncan

Red Corner

Dusko Todorovic

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1577

Elo

1494

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Leroy DuncanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25

KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25

KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26

DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26

latest

Dusko Todorovic

oldest →

KOvs Chidi Njokuani · May 22

KOvs Jordan Wright · Oct 22

KOvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Nov 24

vs Zach Reese · May 25

SUBvs Jose Daniel Medina · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian Leroy DuncanMetricDusko Todorovic

4.43

Strikes / min

4.73

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

52%

Strike defense

48%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

1.77

63%

Takedown defense

42%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.84Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian Leroy DuncanDusko Todorovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)Dusko Todorovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.8|Blue -82.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian Leroy DuncanTargetDusko Todorovic

By target zone

38% acc · 33%

Head

100% acc · 22%

Body

67% acc · 50%

100% acc · 44%

Leg

67% acc · 50%

By position

62% acc · 89%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Leroy Duncan rounds

even

Dusko Todorovic rounds

Round 1Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:38

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 14

Sig Strikes

4 / 6

64%

Sig Str %

66%

14 / 19

Total Strikes

6 / 8

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dusko Todorovic	4 / 6	6 / 8	0 / 0	0
1	Christian Leroy Duncan	9 / 14	14 / 19	0 / 0	0

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights10

Dusko Todorovic

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10