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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Christian Leroy Duncan won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1577

Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Elo1482

Christian Leroy DuncanvsDenis TiuliulinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:24

Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsDenis Tiuliulin: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Leroy Duncan at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Denis Tiuliulin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Christian Leroy Duncan has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Christian Leroy Duncan

Red Corner

Denis Tiuliulin

Blue Corner

-720

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1577

Elo

1482

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Leroy DuncanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25

KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25

KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26

DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26

latest

Denis TiuliulinL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Aliaskhab Khizriev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamie Pickett · Sep 22

SUBvs JunYong Park · Feb 23

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Aug 23

vs Sedriques Dumas · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian Leroy DuncanMetricDenis Tiuliulin

4.43

Strikes / min

3.61

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

5.23

52%

Strike defense

38%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.96

63%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.84Δ 3.46 — meaningful gap-1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian Leroy DuncanDenis Tiuliulin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)Denis Tiuliulin(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.7|Blue -95.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian Leroy DuncanTargetDenis Tiuliulin

By target zone

68% acc · 68%

Head

33% acc · 63%

89% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 20%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

83% acc · 17%

By position

71% acc · 71%

Distance

39% acc · 87%

94% acc · 25%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

60% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Leroy Duncan rounds

even

Denis Tiuliulin rounds

Round 1Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control4:37

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 87

Sig Strikes

30 / 71

79%

Sig Str %

45%

90 / 123

Total Strikes

37 / 81

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Denis Tiuliulin	7 / 14	12 / 21	0 / 0
1	Christian Leroy Duncan	13 / 15	38 / 51	0 / 1
2	Denis Tiuliulin	23 / 57	25 / 60	0 / 0
2	Christian Leroy Duncan	52 / 72	52 / 72	0 / 1

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights10

Denis Tiuliulin

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6