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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Christian Leroy Duncan won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1577

Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Elo1491

Christian Leroy DuncanvsClaudio RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Saturday, March 2, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:57

Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsClaudio Ribeiro: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Leroy Duncan at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Christian Leroy Duncan is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Claudio Ribeiro has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Christian Leroy Duncan has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Christian Leroy Duncan

Red Corner

Claudio Ribeiro

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1577

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Leroy DuncanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25

KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25

KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26

DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26

latest

Claudio Ribeiro

oldest →

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jan 23

KOvs Joseph Holmes · May 23

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian Leroy DuncanMetricClaudio Ribeiro

4.43

Strikes / min

3.59

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

4.90

52%

Strike defense

30%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.56

63%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.84Δ 3.15 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian Leroy DuncanClaudio Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)Claudio Ribeiro(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.1|Blue -86.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian Leroy DuncanTargetClaudio Ribeiro

By target zone

63% acc · 60%

Head

5% acc · 25%

80% acc · 12%

Body

33% acc · 25%

90% acc · 28%

Leg

50% acc · 50%

By position

62% acc · 48%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

80% acc · 18%

Clinch

0% acc

81% acc · 34%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Leroy Duncan rounds

even

Claudio Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:59

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:16

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 92

Sig Strikes

4 / 26

72%

Sig Str %

15.5%

75 / 105

Total Strikes

13 / 39

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Claudio Ribeiro	3 / 20	12 / 33	0 / 0
1	Christian Leroy Duncan	41 / 61	48 / 70	0 / 0
2	Claudio Ribeiro	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0
2	Christian Leroy Duncan	24 / 31	27 / 35	1 / 2

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights10

Claudio Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4