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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Christian Leroy Duncan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1577

Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Elo1458

Christian Leroy DuncanvsAndrey PulyaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChristian Leroy Duncan: StrikervsAndrey Pulyaev: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Christian Leroy Duncan wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Christian Leroy Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Christian Leroy Duncan at -405 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Leroy Duncan (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Christian Leroy Duncan

Red Corner

Andrey Pulyaev

Blue Corner

-405

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1577

Elo

1458

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Leroy DuncanW4 streak

oldest →

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Jul 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25

KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26

DECvs Jared Cannonier · Jul 26

latest

Andrey PulyaevL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nick Klein · Aug 25

vs Ateba Gautier · Jan 26

SUBvs Nursulton Ruziboev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian Leroy DuncanMetricAndrey Pulyaev

4.43

Strikes / min

3.84

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

52%

Strike defense

55%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.29

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.84Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian Leroy DuncanAndrey Pulyaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)Andrey Pulyaev(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.1|Blue -119.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian Leroy DuncanTargetAndrey Pulyaev

By target zone

40% acc · 48%

Head

19% acc · 44%

61% acc · 23%

Body

88% acc · 39%

81% acc · 29%

Leg

75% acc · 17%

By position

45% acc · 64%

Distance

29% acc · 78%

72% acc · 36%

Clinch

57% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Leroy Duncan rounds

even

Andrey Pulyaev rounds

Round 1Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:50

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:42

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Christian Leroy Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control2:04

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 141

Sig Strikes

18 / 55

51.3%

Sig Str %

31.3%

116 / 187

Total Strikes

36 / 78

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:36

Ctrl Time

1:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrey Pulyaev	4 / 11	14 / 22	0 / 1
1	Christian Leroy Duncan	16 / 34	44 / 62	0 / 2
2	Andrey Pulyaev	12 / 36	14 / 38	0 / 1
2	Christian Leroy Duncan	28 / 57	31 / 60	0 / 0
3	Andrey Pulyaev	2 / 8	8 / 18	0 / 2
3	Christian Leroy Duncan	29 / 50	41 / 65	0 / 0

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights10

Andrey Pulyaev

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4