Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlston Harris won · SUB

Elo1400

Elo1476

Christian AguileravsCarlston HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · Saturday, May 8, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlston Harris won

SUB

Model Prediction: Carlston Harris wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Carlston Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlston Harris at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Christian Aguilera is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Carlston Harris has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Carlston Harris threatens submissions; Christian Aguilera has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Christian Aguilera (52.9%).
Carlston Harris has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Aguilera

Red Corner

Carlston Harris

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1400

Elo

1476

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Christian Aguilera

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Ivy · Jun 20

SUBvs Sean Brady · Aug 20

latest

Carlston HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25

DECvs Jake Matthews · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Christian AguileraMetricCarlston Harris

2.54

Strikes / min

3.79

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

48%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.46

60%

Takedown defense

55%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.50Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Christian AguileraCarlston Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Christian Aguilera(3 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -76.0|Blue +76.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Christian AguileraTargetCarlston Harris

By target zone

11% acc · 100%

Head

33% acc · 60%

Body

33% acc · 20%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

10% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Christian Aguilera rounds

even

Carlston Harris rounds

Round 1Carlston Harris edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:32

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 10

Sig Strikes

5 / 13

10%

Sig Str %

38%

5 / 15

Total Strikes

6 / 16

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:32

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlston Harris	5 / 13	6 / 16	0 / 3	1
1	Christian Aguilera	1 / 10	5 / 15	0 / 1	0

Christian Aguilera

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8