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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Yoel Romero won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Elo1382

Chris WeidmanvsYoel RomeroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Yoel Romero won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:24

Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsYoel Romero: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Yoel Romero wins(75.7%)

Actual result: Yoel Romero wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoel Romero at +180 American odds

+$180 profit

$280 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yoel Romero enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Yoel Romero is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Yoel Romero (53.5%).
Chris Weidman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman

Red Corner

Yoel Romero

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1494

Elo

1382

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman

oldest →

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Yoel RomeroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Feb 18

vs Robert Whittaker · Jun 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 19

vs Israel Adesanya · Mar 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricYoel Romero

3.11

Strikes / min

3.44

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

51%

Strike defense

60%

3.27

TDs / 15 min

1.57

72%

Takedown defense

78%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris WeidmanYoel Romero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Weidman(10 fights)Yoel Romero(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +112.9|Blue -112.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetYoel Romero

By target zone

9% acc · 17%

Head

41% acc · 72%

40% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 11%

40% acc · 33%

Leg

60% acc · 17%

By position

26% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 50%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

57% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Weidman rounds

even

Yoel Romero rounds

Round 1Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:25

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 3Yoel Romero edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 47

Sig Strikes

18 / 40

32.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

16 / 54

Total Strikes

27 / 51

1 / 8

TDs

2 / 3

12.5%

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

1:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yoel Romero	3 / 10	5 / 12	0 / 0
1	Chris Weidman	7 / 24	9 / 27	1 / 4
2	Yoel Romero	8 / 21	15 / 30	2 / 3
2	Chris Weidman	4 / 21	6 / 25	0 / 4
3	Yoel Romero	7 / 9	7 / 9	0 / 0
3	Chris Weidman	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20

Yoel Romero

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13