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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Chris Weidman won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Chris Weidman
Elo1491
Vitor Belfort

Chris WeidmanvsVitor BelfortUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:53

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(77.5%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vitor Belfort is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
  • Chris Weidman has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Vitor Belfort (53.5%).
  • Chris Weidman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman
Red Corner
VS
Vitor Belfort
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1494
Elo
1491
42
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
198.12 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman
oldest →
W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24
latest
Vitor Belfort
oldest →
W
KOvs Dan Henderson · Nov 15
L
KOvs Jacare Souza · May 16
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Oct 16
W
vs Nate Marquardt · Jun 17
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · May 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricVitor Belfort
3.11
Strikes / min
1.59
3.37
Strikes absorbed / min
2.83
51%
Strike defense
50%
3.27
TDs / 15 min
1.02
72%
Takedown defense
53%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26evenly matched on net striking-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1639 vs 1561Strikes30.3 vs 10.6Takedowns2.5 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.88 vs 0.42Form1.0 vs 0.8
Chris WeidmanVitor Belfort

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Chris Weidman(10 fights)Vitor Belfort(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.4|Blue -3.4
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -238.0|Blue +238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetVitor Belfort

By target zone

46
69% acc · 100%
Head
15
54% acc · 83%
0
0% acc
Body
3
75% acc · 17%
0
Leg
0

By position

3
25% acc · 7%
Distance
10
48% acc · 56%
0
Clinch
8
73% acc · 44%
43
75% acc · 93%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Chris Weidman rounds
0
even
0
Vitor Belfort rounds
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes46
Takedowns1
Control1:13
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
46 / 69
Sig Strikes
18 / 32
66%
Sig Str %
56%
50 / 73
Total Strikes
19 / 36
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:13
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vitor Belfort18 / 3219 / 360 / 00
1Chris Weidman46 / 6950 / 731 / 20

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20

Vitor Belfort

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights13