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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Chris Weidman won · U-DEC R5
Elo1494
Chris Weidman
Elo1491

Chris WeidmanvsLyoto MachidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · Saturday, July 5, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsLyoto Machida: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
  • Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
  • Chris Weidman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman
Red Corner
VS
Lyoto Machida
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1494
Elo
1491
42
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
198.12 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman
oldest →
W
DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21
L
vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23
W
vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24
L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24
latest
Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15
L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15
L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17
W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18
W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricLyoto Machida
3.11
Strikes / min
2.59
3.37
Strikes absorbed / min
1.57
51%
Strike defense
61%
3.27
TDs / 15 min
1.21
72%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1625 vs 1537Strikes25.3 vs 30.9Takedowns2.1 vs 0.8Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.47Form1.0 vs 0.6
Chris WeidmanLyoto Machida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Chris Weidman(10 fights)Lyoto Machida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.4|Blue -3.4
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetLyoto Machida

By target zone

47
35% acc · 72%
Head
39
36% acc · 67%
7
29% acc · 11%
Body
15
58% acc · 26%
11
65% acc · 17%
Leg
4
67% acc · 7%

By position

51
33% acc · 78%
Distance
51
39% acc · 88%
8
67% acc · 12%
Clinch
7
88% acc · 12%
6
67% acc · 9%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Chris Weidman rounds
0
even
1
Lyoto Machida rounds
Round 1Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:01
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 2Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control0:59
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns3
Control2:12
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Lyoto Machida edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:11
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Chris Weidman edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:13
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
65 / 177
Sig Strikes
58 / 139
36.4%
Sig Str %
39%
90 / 206
Total Strikes
63 / 145
5 / 13
TDs
0 / 0
38.6%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:36
Ctrl Time
0:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lyoto Machida7 / 197 / 190 / 00
1Chris Weidman10 / 3310 / 330 / 10
2Lyoto Machida5 / 147 / 160 / 00
2Chris Weidman14 / 3718 / 411 / 10
3Lyoto Machida6 / 196 / 200 / 00
3Chris Weidman9 / 2122 / 383 / 50
4Chris Weidman9 / 429 / 420 / 30
4Lyoto Machida18 / 4718 / 470 / 00
5Lyoto Machida22 / 4025 / 430 / 00
5Chris Weidman23 / 4431 / 521 / 30

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights20

Lyoto Machida

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16