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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Luke Rockhold won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1494

Elo1433

Chris WeidmanvsLuke RockholdUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luke Rockhold won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 3:12

Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsLuke Rockhold: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Luke Rockhold wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Luke Rockhold is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman

Red Corner

Luke Rockhold

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1494

Elo

1433

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman

oldest →

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Luke RockholdL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16

KOvs David Branch · Sep 17

KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricLuke Rockhold

3.11

Strikes / min

4.10

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

51%

Strike defense

53%

3.27

TDs / 15 min

0.70

72%

Takedown defense

65%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris WeidmanLuke Rockhold

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Weidman(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.1|Blue -61.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetLuke Rockhold

By target zone

49% acc · 52%

Head

61% acc · 76%

95% acc · 38%

Body

82% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

60% acc · 83%

Distance

53% acc · 35%

100% acc · 15%

Clinch

69% acc · 7%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

77% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Weidman rounds

even

Luke Rockhold rounds

Round 1Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control3:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 2Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:14

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control1:06

68Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 4Luke Rockhold edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 75

Sig Strikes

126 / 191

75%

Sig Str %

70.5%

62 / 92

Total Strikes

161 / 229

3 / 6

TDs

2 / 4

50%

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:27

Ctrl Time

5:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luke Rockhold	7 / 9	13 / 15	0 / 0	1
1	Chris Weidman	10 / 12	21 / 26	2 / 4	0
2	Chris Weidman	14 / 31	14 / 31	0 / 1	0
2	Luke Rockhold	31 / 60	32 / 61	0 / 0	0
3	Luke Rockhold	68 / 99	83 / 114	1 / 1	0
3	Chris Weidman	21 / 29	23 / 31	1 / 1	0
4	Luke Rockhold	20 / 23	33 / 39	1 / 3	0
4	Chris Weidman	3 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 0	0

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11