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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Chris Weidman won · SUB R3

Elo1494

Elo1492

Chris WeidmanvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chris Weidman won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:45

Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Chris Weidman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Chris Weidman has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1494

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'9"

198.12 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman

oldest →

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricKelvin Gastelum

3.11

Strikes / min

3.65

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

51%

Strike defense

57%

3.27

TDs / 15 min

1.04

72%

Takedown defense

60%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris WeidmanKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Weidman(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

42% acc · 69%

Head

50% acc · 81%

50% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

41% acc · 67%

Distance

41% acc · 54%

67% acc · 17%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

75% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Weidman rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:43

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:47

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chris Weidman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control2:05

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 76

Sig Strikes

26 / 47

49.7%

Sig Str %

49.3%

75 / 124

Total Strikes

28 / 50

7 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

53.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:35

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kelvin Gastelum	13 / 20	14 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Chris Weidman	9 / 25	16 / 35	2 / 4	1
2	Kelvin Gastelum	2 / 7	3 / 8	0 / 0	0
2	Chris Weidman	10 / 15	33 / 43	3 / 5	0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	11 / 20	11 / 20	0 / 0	0
3	Chris Weidman	17 / 36	26 / 46	2 / 4	1

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24