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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gegard Mousasi won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1494

Elo1491

Chris WeidmanvsGegard MousasiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Gegard Mousasi won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:13

Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsGegard Mousasi: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gegard Mousasi at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gegard Mousasi is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Chris Weidman has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Gegard Mousasi has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman

Red Corner

Gegard Mousasi

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1494

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman

oldest →

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Brad Tavares · Aug 23

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Gegard MousasiW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Uriah Hall · Sep 15

vs Thales Leites · Feb 16

KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16

KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricGegard Mousasi

3.11

Strikes / min

3.75

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

1.21

51%

Strike defense

68%

3.27

TDs / 15 min

1.59

72%

Takedown defense

59%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris WeidmanGegard Mousasi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Weidman(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.7|Blue -3.7

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetGegard Mousasi

By target zone

36% acc · 69%

Head

45% acc · 69%

100% acc · 23%

Body

83% acc · 10%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

91% acc · 20%

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 65%

Clinch

75% acc · 31%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Weidman rounds

even

Gegard Mousasi rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control1:56

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gegard Mousasi edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:26

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 29

Sig Strikes

49 / 93

43.5%

Sig Str %

54%

18 / 34

Total Strikes

55 / 99

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

62.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:22

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gegard Mousasi	21 / 52	22 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Chris Weidman	10 / 22	13 / 25	3 / 4	1
2	Gegard Mousasi	28 / 41	33 / 46	0 / 1	0
2	Chris Weidman	3 / 7	5 / 9	1 / 2	0

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20

Gegard Mousasi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12