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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1481

Chris WeidmanvsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Weidman: WrestlervsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Chris Weidman wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Weidman at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Weidman has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Weidman

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-205

(67%)

1494

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Weidman

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Oct 19

DECvs Omari Akhmedov · Aug 20

KOvs Uriah Hall · Apr 21

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 24

KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 24

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WeidmanMetricBrad Tavares

3.11

Strikes / min

3.41

3.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

51%

Strike defense

54%

3.27

TDs / 15 min

0.70

72%

Takedown defense

80%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris WeidmanBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Weidman(10 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.7|Blue -13.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +728.0|Blue -728.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WeidmanTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

39% acc · 81%

Head

34% acc · 30%

42% acc · 14%

Body

89% acc · 11%

67% acc · 5%

Leg

91% acc · 59%

By position

39% acc · 95%

Distance

60% acc · 97%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Weidman rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:12

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:54

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:15

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 92

Sig Strikes

70 / 115

38.3%

Sig Str %

60%

39 / 94

Total Strikes

71 / 116

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	16 / 29	16 / 29	0 / 0
1	Chris Weidman	7 / 20	7 / 20	0 / 3
2	Brad Tavares	27 / 44	28 / 45	0 / 0
2	Chris Weidman	20 / 41	22 / 43	0 / 2
3	Brad Tavares	27 / 42	27 / 42	0 / 0
3	Chris Weidman	10 / 31	10 / 31	0 / 3

Chris Weidman

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights20

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28