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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · U-DEC R3
Elo1491
Chris Wade
Elo1544
Islam Makhachev editorial illustration

Chris WadevsIslam MakhachevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Islam Makhachev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Wade: WrestlervsIslam Makhachev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chris Wade wins(78.7%)

Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Wade at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Islam Makhachev has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Islam Makhachev has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Wade
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1491
Elo
1544
38
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Wade
oldest →
W
DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Jan 15
W
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 15
W
SUBvs Mehdi Baghdad · Jan 16
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · May 16
W
vs Frankie Perez · Jul 17
latest
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23
W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24
W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WadeMetricIslam Makhachev
1.70
Strikes / min
2.45
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
51%
Strike defense
61%
2.60
TDs / 15 min
3.10
55%
Takedown defense
91%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.05Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1550 vs 1501Strikes21.8 vs 18.0Takedowns2.2 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.50Form0.2 vs -0.2
Chris WadeIslam Makhachev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Chris Wade(7 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -52.9|Blue +52.9
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -218.0|Blue +218.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WadeTargetIslam Makhachev

By target zone

2
22% acc · 40%
Head
5
42% acc · 42%
0
0% acc
Body
7
100% acc · 58%
3
100% acc · 60%
Leg
0

By position

3
23% acc · 60%
Distance
7
50% acc · 58%
0
Clinch
0
2
50% acc · 40%
Ground
5
100% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Chris Wade rounds
0
even
2
Islam Makhachev rounds
Round 1Chris Wade edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control3:15
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:02Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:40
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:40Control
Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:10
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 17
Sig Strikes
12 / 19
30%
Sig Str %
59%
42 / 61
Total Strikes
51 / 83
0 / 0
TDs
4 / 4
—
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
2
4
Rev
2
4:05
Ctrl Time
8:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Islam Makhachev2 / 52 / 51 / 12
1Chris Wade4 / 730 / 380 / 00
2Islam Makhachev7 / 811 / 131 / 10
2Chris Wade0 / 75 / 130 / 01
3Islam Makhachev3 / 638 / 652 / 20
3Chris Wade1 / 37 / 100 / 01

Chris Wade

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7

Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18