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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Chris Wade won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Chris Wade
Elo1354

Chris WadevsCain CarrizosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · Saturday, August 30, 2014Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Chris Wade won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:12

Model Prediction: Chris Wade wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Chris Wade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Wade at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Wade threatens submissions; Cain Carrizosa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Chris Wade has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Cain Carrizosa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Wade
Red Corner
VS
Cain Carrizosa
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1491
Elo
1354
38
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Wade
oldest →
W
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 15
W
SUBvs Mehdi Baghdad · Jan 16
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · May 16
L
vs Islam Makhachev · Sep 16
W
vs Frankie Perez · Jul 17
latest
Cain Carrizosa
oldest →
L
vs Leonardo Mafra · Mar 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris WadeMetricCain Carrizosa
1.70
Strikes / min
2.72
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
5.80
51%
Strike defense
51%
2.60
TDs / 15 min
0.00
55%
Takedown defense
14%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.05Δ 3.03 — meaningful gap-3.08
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Chris Wade(7 fights)Cain Carrizosa(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.4|Blue -136.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris WadeTargetCain Carrizosa

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Chris Wade rounds
0
even
0
Cain Carrizosa rounds
Round 1Chris Wade edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control0:45
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
0%
Sig Str %
0%
5 / 6
Total Strikes
0 / 3
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:45
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cain Carrizosa0 / 30 / 30 / 00
1Chris Wade0 / 15 / 61 / 11

Chris Wade

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7

Cain Carrizosa

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2