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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Adlan Amagov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
Chris Spang
Elo1490

Chris SpangvsAdlan AmagovUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Adlan Amagov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Spang wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Adlan Amagov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Spang at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Adlan Amagov has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Adlan Amagov has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Spang
Red Corner
VS
Adlan Amagov
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
1490
Elo
1490
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
194 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris SpangNo prior UFC fights on record.
Adlan Amagov
oldest →
W
KOvs TJ Waldburger · Oct 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris SpangMetricAdlan Amagov
1.83
Strikes / min
3.29
1.95
Strikes absorbed / min
0.82
60%
Strike defense
78%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
5.84
50%
Takedown defense
100%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.12Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+2.47
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Chris Spang(1 fights)Adlan Amagov(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris SpangTargetAdlan Amagov

By target zone

1
2% acc · 20%
Head
12
23% acc · 32%
1
25% acc · 20%
Body
5
56% acc · 13%
3
33% acc · 60%
Leg
21
57% acc · 55%

By position

4
8% acc · 80%
Distance
26
34% acc · 68%
1
25% acc · 20%
Clinch
10
63% acc · 26%
0
Ground
2
33% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Chris Spang rounds
0
even
3
Adlan Amagov rounds
Round 1Adlan Amagov edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Adlan Amagov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:31Control
Round 3Adlan Amagov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:55Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 57
Sig Strikes
38 / 99
9.3%
Sig Str %
37.3%
24 / 76
Total Strikes
57 / 118
0 / 0
TDs
6 / 10
—
TD %
70%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
4:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Adlan Amagov10 / 2310 / 231 / 10
1Chris Spang1 / 161 / 160 / 00
2Adlan Amagov7 / 2525 / 432 / 40
2Chris Spang2 / 1213 / 230 / 00
3Adlan Amagov21 / 5122 / 523 / 50
3Chris Spang2 / 2910 / 370 / 00

Chris Spang

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach—
Fights1

Adlan Amagov

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2