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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Padilla won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1548

Elo1449

Chris PadillavsIsmael BonfimUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Saturday, November 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Padilla won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:30

Style matchupChris Padilla: Pressure fightervsIsmael Bonfim: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Chris Padilla wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Chris Padilla wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Padilla at -118 American odds

+$85 profit

$185 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Padilla is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ismael Bonfim has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Ismael Bonfim has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Padilla

Red Corner

Ismael Bonfim

Blue Corner

-118

(54%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1548

Elo

1449

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Padilla

oldest →

SUBvs James Llontop · Apr 24

KOvs Rongzhu · Sep 24

vs Jai Herbert · Mar 25

DECvs MarQuel Mederos · Apr 26

latest

Ismael BonfimL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jan 23

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 23

vs Vinc Pichel · May 24

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 25

SUBvs Axel Sola · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris PadillaMetricIsmael Bonfim

6.19

Strikes / min

5.51

4.88

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

49%

Strike defense

65%

1.13

TDs / 15 min

1.06

80%

Takedown defense

76%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.31evenly matched on net striking+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris PadillaIsmael Bonfim

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Padilla(5 fights)Ismael Bonfim(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +99.7|Blue -99.7

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris PadillaTargetIsmael Bonfim

By target zone

55% acc · 52%

Head

40% acc · 64%

67% acc · 16%

Body

92% acc · 29%

62% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

52% acc · 67%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

75% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Padilla rounds

even

Ismael Bonfim rounds

Round 1Chris Padilla edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:23

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Chris Padilla edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:58

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 109

Sig Strikes

42 / 84

57%

Sig Str %

50%

88 / 134

Total Strikes

47 / 89

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

3:21

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ismael Bonfim	14 / 28	18 / 32	1 / 2
1	Chris Padilla	17 / 31	38 / 53	0 / 0
2	Ismael Bonfim	28 / 56	29 / 57	0 / 1
2	Chris Padilla	47 / 78	50 / 81	0 / 0

Chris Padilla

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Ismael Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6