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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Chris Lytle won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Elo1499

Chris LytlevsMatt BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Lytle won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:02

Style matchupChris Lytle: Well-roundedvsMatt Brown: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Chris Lytle wins(76.1%)

Actual result: Chris Lytle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Lytle at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Lytle threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Matt Brown has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Lytle

Red Corner

Matt Brown

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1490

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

172.72 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Lytle

oldest →

vs Matt Serra · Sep 10

vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11

SUBvs Dan Hardy · Aug 11

latest

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris LytleMetricMatt Brown

3.76

Strikes / min

3.76

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

58%

Strike defense

55%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

1.68

55%

Takedown defense

63%

2.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.73evenly matched on net striking+0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris LytleMatt Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Lytle(4 fights)Matt Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.4|Blue +8.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +47.8|Blue -47.8

Grappler Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris LytleTargetMatt Brown

By target zone

31% acc · 63%

Head

54% acc · 56%

70% acc · 37%

Body

73% acc · 32%

Leg

60% acc · 12%

By position

33% acc · 68%

Distance

55% acc · 72%

67% acc · 32%

Clinch

88% acc · 28%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Lytle rounds

even

Matt Brown rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:14

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:41Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Chris Lytle edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:13

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 49

Sig Strikes

25 / 42

37.5%

Sig Str %

57.5%

40 / 72

Total Strikes

29 / 46

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:27

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Brown	19 / 31	23 / 35	1 / 2	1
1	Chris Lytle	13 / 32	26 / 47	0 / 1	1
2	Matt Brown	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Chris Lytle	6 / 17	14 / 25	0 / 0	3

Chris Lytle

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25