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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Leben won · SUB R3

Elo1353

Elo1490

Chris LebenvsYoshihiro AkiyamaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · Saturday, July 3, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Leben won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:40

Model Prediction: Yoshihiro Akiyama wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Chris Leben wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yoshihiro Akiyama at -192 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Yoshihiro Akiyama has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Leben (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Leben

Red Corner

Yoshihiro Akiyama

Blue Corner

+177

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-192

(66%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris LebenL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Jul 11

KOvs Mark Munoz · Nov 11

vs Derek Brunson · Dec 12

vs Andrew Craig · Jul 13

KOvs Uriah Hall · Dec 13

latest

Yoshihiro Akiyama

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Oct 10

KOvs Vitor Belfort · Aug 11

vs Jake Shields · Feb 12

vs Amir Sadollah · Sep 14

vs Alberto Mina · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris LebenMetricYoshihiro Akiyama

2.87

Strikes / min

3.10

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

52%

Strike defense

57%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

2.29

53%

Takedown defense

92%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris LebenYoshihiro Akiyama

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Leben(8 fights)Yoshihiro Akiyama(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.7|Blue +137.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris LebenTargetYoshihiro Akiyama

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

38% acc · 89%

50% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 4%

57% acc · 26%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

41% acc · 80%

Distance

38% acc · 78%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

25% acc · 4%

83% acc · 11%

Ground

56% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Leben rounds

even

Yoshihiro Akiyama rounds

Round 1Yoshihiro Akiyama edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:54Control

Round 2Yoshihiro Akiyama edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:23

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 3Yoshihiro Akiyama edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:42Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 105

Sig Strikes

27 / 68

44.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

162 / 231

Total Strikes

62 / 111

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 5

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

8:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yoshihiro Akiyama	3 / 15	12 / 25	3 / 3	1
1	Chris Leben	11 / 29	30 / 49	0 / 0	1
2	Yoshihiro Akiyama	19 / 38	30 / 50	1 / 1	0
2	Chris Leben	23 / 54	49 / 80	0 / 0	1
3	Yoshihiro Akiyama	5 / 15	20 / 36	1 / 1	0
3	Chris Leben	12 / 22	83 / 102	0 / 0	2

Chris Leben

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Yoshihiro Akiyama

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6