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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Mark Munoz won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1490

Chris LebenvsMark MunozUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mark Munoz won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mark Munoz wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Mark Munoz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Munoz at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Leben enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Leben (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Leben

Red Corner

Mark Munoz

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris LebenL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Stann · Jan 11

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Jul 11

vs Derek Brunson · Dec 12

vs Andrew Craig · Jul 13

KOvs Uriah Hall · Dec 13

latest

Mark Munoz

oldest →

vs Tim Boetsch · Jul 13

KOvs Lyoto Machida · Oct 13

SUBvs Gegard Mousasi · May 14

SUBvs Roan Carneiro · Feb 15

vs Luke Barnatt · May 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris LebenMetricMark Munoz

2.87

Strikes / min

3.12

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.26

52%

Strike defense

57%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

3.17

53%

Takedown defense

57%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking+0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris LebenMark Munoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Leben(8 fights)Mark Munoz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.6|Blue +137.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris LebenTargetMark Munoz

By target zone

27% acc · 67%

Head

39% acc · 56%

100% acc · 25%

Body

94% acc · 41%

50% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

24% acc · 33%

Distance

45% acc · 13%

55% acc · 50%

Clinch

56% acc · 13%

29% acc · 17%

Ground

54% acc · 74%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Leben rounds

even

Mark Munoz rounds

Round 1Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control0:47

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:54Control

Round 2Mark Munoz edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:39

19Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 35

Sig Strikes

39 / 74

33%

Sig Str %

53%

61 / 88

Total Strikes

55 / 92

2 / 2

TDs

5 / 9

100%

TD %

55%

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

6:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Munoz	20 / 33	25 / 38	2 / 4	0
1	Chris Leben	8 / 22	39 / 53	2 / 2	1
2	Mark Munoz	19 / 41	30 / 54	3 / 5	0
2	Chris Leben	4 / 13	22 / 35	0 / 0	1

Chris Leben

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Mark Munoz

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12