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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1454

Chris LebenvsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · Saturday, December 29, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Leben wins(63.5%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Leben at -144 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Leben enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Leben is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chris Leben has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Derek Brunson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Leben

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

-144

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+134

(43%)

1353

Elo

1454

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris LebenL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Stann · Jan 11

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Jul 11

KOvs Mark Munoz · Nov 11

vs Andrew Craig · Jul 13

KOvs Uriah Hall · Dec 13

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris LebenMetricDerek Brunson

2.87

Strikes / min

3.51

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

3.14

53%

Takedown defense

85%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris LebenDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Leben(8 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -101.5|Blue +101.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris LebenTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

29% acc · 50%

Head

28% acc · 73%

100% acc · 5%

Body

57% acc · 10%

78% acc · 45%

Leg

50% acc · 17%

By position

40% acc · 90%

Distance

28% acc · 71%

80% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

48% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Leben rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:28Control

Round 2Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:42Control

Round 3Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 94

Sig Strikes

41 / 130

44.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

103 / 164

Total Strikes

76 / 174

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 13

—

TD %

49.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derek Brunson	10 / 22	35 / 52	1 / 1	1
1	Chris Leben	1 / 2	18 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Derek Brunson	14 / 51	20 / 58	1 / 6	0
2	Chris Leben	16 / 38	46 / 68	0 / 0	0
3	Derek Brunson	17 / 57	21 / 64	2 / 6	0
3	Chris Leben	23 / 54	39 / 75	0 / 0	0

Chris Leben

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21