← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Andrew Craig won · S-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1355

Chris LebenvsAndrew CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrew Craig won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Andrew Craig wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Andrew Craig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Craig at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Leben enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Andrew Craig enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrew Craig has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Leben (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Leben

Red Corner

Andrew Craig

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1353

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris LebenL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Stann · Jan 11

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Jul 11

KOvs Mark Munoz · Nov 11

vs Derek Brunson · Dec 12

KOvs Uriah Hall · Dec 13

latest

Andrew CraigL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12

vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13

SUBvs Luke Barnatt · Oct 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14

KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris LebenMetricAndrew Craig

2.87

Strikes / min

2.39

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

52%

Strike defense

50%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

0.53

53%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking-0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris LebenAndrew Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Leben(8 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris LebenTargetAndrew Craig

By target zone

38% acc · 57%

Head

57% acc · 78%

70% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 14%

55% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

41% acc · 80%

Distance

59% acc · 72%

75% acc · 20%

Clinch

86% acc · 19%

Ground

67% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Leben rounds

even

Andrew Craig rounds

Round 1Chris Leben edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:46

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Andrew Craig edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:45

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Andrew Craig edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:29

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 66

Sig Strikes

64 / 101

46%

Sig Str %

63%

127 / 172

Total Strikes

120 / 160

0 / 7

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:00

Ctrl Time

3:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrew Craig	15 / 23	37 / 46	0 / 1
1	Chris Leben	13 / 22	55 / 65	0 / 4
2	Andrew Craig	27 / 43	38 / 54	0 / 0
2	Chris Leben	8 / 25	38 / 58	0 / 2
3	Andrew Craig	22 / 35	45 / 60	2 / 2
3	Chris Leben	9 / 19	34 / 49	0 / 1

Chris Leben

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Andrew Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights7